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ETH returns 44% lower than BTC due to weak fundamentals
Week of September 10-16, 2024
VanEck has summarized that the pressure on Ethereum (ETH) prices comes from decreased on-chain revenues, as well as competition from alternative blockchains like Solana (SOL) and Layer-2 networks, which have lower fees and are capturing a larger market share.
CryptoQuant has revealed that since Ethereum transitioned to a proof-of-stake system two years ago, its returns have lagged behind Bitcoin (BTC) by 44% and even lower than other coins in the same category, such as Solana (SOL) and Binance (BNB), by 53% and 18%, respectively.
VanEck is set to shut down its Ethereum Futures ETF on September 16 due to performance issues, liquidity, assets under management, and investor interest, along with the emergence of Spot Ethereum ETFs attracting investor attention.
According to SoSoValue, the Spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of 706 million USD in the past week, the highest since March. Meanwhile, the Spot Ethereum ETF has yet to recover, with a net outflow of 91 million USD. The Fear & Greed Index for the cryptocurrency sector has dropped to 29 points as of September 8, 2024, reflecting high investor anxiety.
The Block has reported that fees from DeFi Protocols in August fell by 24.4% compared to July, marking the lowest point since February 2024. The projects generating the highest fees are Lido, followed by Uniswap, Jito, and Pancakeswap. The decline in DeFi interest is attributed to investors shifting their focus to meme coins.
MV Global, a Web3 investment firm, published an analysis suggesting that decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePins) will be the next growth area for Web3. Currently, DePins consist of over 1,000 projects
Technical Graph Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin (BTC) has faced sustained selling pressure, dropping to the support level of 49,000 USD. Keep an eye on this support level as the price may fall further to the next support level at 44,000 USD, suggesting it might be wise to cut losses beforehand. Meanwhile, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has entered the oversold zone, which could indicate a potential price rebound, with a resistance target at 65,000 USD.
Support : 1,760,000 THB / 49,000 USD
Resistance : 2,200,000 THB / 65,000 USD
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum (ETH) continues to weaken. Watch the support level at 2,100 USD; if it cannot hold, it may be wise to cut losses as the price could drop further to around 1,600 USD. If the price holds at 2,100 USD, it might present a short-term trading opportunity with a target resistance at 2,750 USD. However, consider short-term trading as the overall trend remains bearish.
Support : 72,000 THB / 2,100 USD
Resistance : 96,000 THB / 2,750 USD
ApeCoin (APE)
ApeCoin (APE) achieved a return of 22.86% in the past week, with buying interest returning after hitting a low at 0.0470 USD. Use this price as a stop-loss point if the decline continues. The first resistance level is at 0.870 USD. For the price to turn bullish again, it needs to break through this resistance level first.
- Support : 18 THB / 0.470 USD
- Resistance : 34 THB / 0.870 USD
Sui (SUI)
Sui (SUI) posted a return of 19.89% in the past week. The rising price signals a potential reversal to a bullish trend. Look for opportunities to buy on a price dip at the first support level of 0.7455 USD. If this level cannot hold, consider cutting losses. However, if it holds, the next resistance level for taking profits is at 1.177 USD.
- Support : 24 THB / 0.7455 USD
- Resistance : 40 THB / 1.177 USD
Investment Trends
The recent US non-farm payroll numbers came in significantly lower than expected, raising concerns in the market about a potential economic recession. This has led to speculation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might need to cut interest rates by 0.5% in the next meeting, causing sell-offs in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
On Wednesday, September 11, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be released, with the market forecasting a rate of 2.6%, down from 2.9% the previous month. If the numbers align with expectations, it will bolster confidence that the FOMC will implement its first rate cut on September 19, or the following week.
Additionally, the financial markets believe that there is a possibility the FOMC might implement a more aggressive 0.5% rate cut. Although there might be further sell-offs in the stock market, any rate cut is likely to positively impact Bitcoin prices. Therefore, a price drop to support levels could present a good opportunity for gradual accumulation in the long term.
Historically, the final quarter of the year tends to yield good returns for investors. Thus, the remainder of September could be a good time to gradually increase investments in the cryptocurrency market, particularly in major coins like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Binance (BNB). However, it is advisable to delay these investments if Bitcoin’s price falls below 49,000 USD.
References
- https://cointelegraph.com/news/multiple-factors-fueling-ethereum-s-dismal-price-action-van-eck
- https://www.theblock.co/post/314869/ether-has-underperformed-bitcoin-by-44-since-switch-to-proof-of-stake-cryptoquant
- https://cointelegraph.com/news/van-eck-to-shutter-ethereum-futures-etf
- https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-is-bitcoin-price-down-today
- https://www.theblock.co/post/314117/defi-market-monthly-fee-revenue-drop
- https://cointelegraph.com/news/depin-crypto-next-big-use-case-mv-capital
Disclaimers
- Cryptocurrencies and digital tokens are highly risky; investors may lose all investment money. Investors should study information carefully and make investments according to their own risk profile.
- Past returns or performance of digital assets do not guarantee future returns or performance.
Remark: views, information, knowledge, and opinions are considered as content that come from individuals involved. They do not constitute an expression of Bitazza and its employees. Neither the email nor the content presented constitute investment advice.
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