Week of November 11 - 17, 2025

Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) announced its support for the country’s first pilot stablecoin project, allowing three major banks, Mizuho Bank, MUFG, and SMBC, to issue yen-backed digital coins under the Payment Services Act. The system trial is set to begin in November 2025.

A senior ETF analyst from Bloomberg revealed that despite the sharp market downturn in October, Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw only $722 million in net outflows. However, data from CryptoQuant shows that long-term holders were the main sellers this round, unloading over 405,000 BTC worth around $41.3 billion.

Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, has revised down her maximum Bitcoin price forecast for 2030 from $1.5 million to $1.2 million, citing the growing dominance of stablecoins as a store of value in developing countries, particularly those with high inflation or limited access to U.S. dollars, such as Venezuela and Argentina.

Mastercard has partnered with Ripple and Gemini to pilot the use of the RLUSD stablecoin on the XRP Ledger, an open-source blockchain developed by Ripple. The initiative aims to enable fast and low-cost financial transactions for crypto-to-fiat card settlements.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $558.4 million in net outflows on Friday, November 7, marking the largest figure since August 1, 2025, and capping off nearly a full week of outflows. Meanwhile, IBIT, operated by BlackRock, saw its market share drop to around 73.2% from its three-month high of 82.3%.

The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has issued new guidelines allowing Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) and crypto funds to participate in staking on Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchains with clearer and more compliant tax treatment.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has pulled back in line with the U.S. stock market. Key support is at $101,500, the previous low. If it fails to hold this level, recovery could become more difficult. However, if BTC manages to stay above it, the next resistance is at $107,500. A breakout above this level could signal a move to retest the previous high.

• Support: 3,200,000 THB / 101,500 USD
• Resistance: 3,600,000 THB / 107,500 USD

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) has started to recover after hitting a low of $3,000. This level can be used as an entry point as well as a stop-loss if the price dips further. The resistance target is at $3,900, and if ETH breaks above this level, the uptrend could continue.

• Support: 100,000 THB / 3,000 USD
• Resistance: 128,000 THB / 3,900 USD

Filecoin (FIL)

Filecoin (FIL) gained 75.06% over the past week. After a strong price surge, an entry opportunity may be found around the support level at $1.95. If FIL holds above this level, it could rebound toward the resistance target at $3.30. However, if it fails to hold, consider cutting losses.

• Support: 68 THB / 1.95 USD
• Resistance: 96 THB / 3.30 USD

Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET)

Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) gained 60.84% over the past week. The price has recovered from its recent low, and an entry opportunity may be found on a pullback that does not fall below $0.2837. The resistance target is at $0.4624.

• Support: 9 THB / 0.2837 USD
• Resistance: 14 THB / 0.4624 USD

Investment Trends

The cryptocurrency market has rebounded, supported by developments in the U.S. Senate, which may reach an agreement to end the government shutdown. Additionally, former President Donald Trump plans to distribute $2,000 per U.S. citizen, which could provide additional liquidity to the market.

Selling pressure from long-term holders continues, and last week also saw outflows from ETFs. The downside for Bitcoin (BTC) could extend another 10% from its recent 20% drop from the peak. A 30% correction, or a drop to around $88,000, would align with the average retracements seen in the two previous cycles.

On Thursday, November 13, the U.S. will release the CPI data for October 2025, expected at 3%. If the figure meets or comes below this level, it could be positive for the market, as it would support the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in lowering interest rates due to reduced inflation pressure.

Some altcoins have started seeing buying interest, though the market remains volatile due to reduced liquidity during the shutdown and selling pressure in AI stocks. If it becomes clear that the FOMC will cut rates in its final meeting of the year, and the $2,000 distribution policy is implemented, additional buying is expected, particularly in altcoins. 

Investment strategy: The current strategy emphasizes long-term accumulation rather than short-term speculation until more positive market catalysts emerge.

References

• https://www.theblock.co/post/377979/japans-regulator-backs-stablecoin-project 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/don-t-blame-etf-btc-selloff-inside-house 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/cathie-wood-btc-forecast-300k-stablecoins-market-share 
• https://www.theblock.co/post/377833/mastercard-ripple-gemini-explore-settling-card-transactions-using-xrpl 
• https://www.theblock.co/post/378098/u-s-spot-bitcoin-etfs-see-largest-daily-outflow-since-august-as-btc-price-hovers-around-100000 
• https://www.theblock.co/post/378247/irs-issues-guidance-allowing-crypto-etps-stake-digital-assets 
  
  

Disclaimers

• Cryptocurrencies and digital tokens are highly risky; investors may lose all investment money. It is important to study information carefully and invest based on your own risk profile.
• Past returns or performance of digital assets do not guarantee future returns or performance. 

Remark: The views, information, knowledge, and opinions expressed herein are those of the individuals involved and do not represent the views of Bitazza or its employees. Neither this email nor the content presented constitutes investment advice.