U.S. considers two more 0.25% rate cuts this year.

Week of October 8-14, 2024

The Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) stated at the National Association for Business Economics meeting that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will not rush into cutting interest rates too quickly, even though it recently reduced rates by 0.50%, more than the anticipated figure. Currently, the Fed is likely to lower interest rates by 0.25% twice before the end of this year, a total 0.50% reduction.

Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, revealed that the unrealized profit margin of Bitcoin (BTC) for whale investors holding the asset for five months or less is only 1%, which is not enticing enough to trigger profit-taking. This indicates that there may not yet be significant selling pressure from this group of investors.

The Ethereum Foundation has sold about 3,766 ETH, worth over $10 million this year. The Foundation plans to release a financial report soon amid community concerns regarding various expenses.

Bitwise has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to register the first XRP ETF, defining the XRP token as a tool for modern finance. However, there are still doubts regarding its classification as a security.

The U.S. SEC has filed an appeal in the Ripple case after a judge ruled last year that Ripple's sale of XRP in the secondary market does not constitute a securities offering. This news has led to significant downward price pressure on XRP.

Grayscale Investments has launched a trust for the AAVE token, which is the most popular DeFi lending protocol, with nearly $12 billion in total value locked (TVL). The AAVE token price has surged over 110% in the past 12 months.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet surpassed the resistance level of $65,000, but a recent pullback and its ability to hold the support level of $62,000 indicate a continuing recovery. If it can break through the $65,000 resistance this week, there will be a chance to test the first resistance at $68,000, with the next target at $70,000.

• Support: 2,000,000 THB / 62,000 USD
• Resistance: 2,520,000 THB / 70,000 USD

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH), despite pulling back, has not reached its low at $2,275, which is a positive sign for continued recovery. This week, it still needs to break through the first resistance level at $2,500 in order to test the main target at $2,750, which would mark a full positive reversal.

Support: 75,000 THB / 2,270 USD
Resistance: 95,000 THB / 2,750 USD

Apt (APT)

Apt (APT) generated returns of 13.94% over the past week, indicating a recovery and potential upward movement. Employ a buying strategy only when the price pulls back, with the first support level to watch at $8. If it holds above this level, it could test the resistance target at $10. However, if it falls below the support, it’s advisable to pause investments for now.

Support: 240 THB / 8 USD
Resistance: 350 THB / 10 USD

Zentry (ZENT) 

Zentry (ZENT) generated returns of 10.53% over the past week as its price continued to recover. The next key support level is at $0.022. Use this level as a buying point if the price pulls back, but if it fails to hold, it's advisable to cut losses. The target resistance is at $0.028, so consider a buying strategy when the price dips.

Support: 0.65 THB / 0.022  USD
Resistance: 1 THB / 0.028 USD

Investment Trends

The U.S. non-farm payroll figures and unemployment rate did not raise any concerns about a potential recession. This could generally have a positive effect on Bitcoin (BTC). However, the Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) considers two 0.25% rate cuts this year to be more appropriate than a single 0.5% cut. Additionally, news of the conflict between Iran and Israel may have caused a slight dip in Bitcoin (BTC).

The recent FOMC meeting minutes will be released this Wednesday, October 9. Following that, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be announced the next day, on Thursday, October 10. 

Although the Fed has outlined its plans for rate cuts, the CPI figures may still impact the market. If inflation decreases to an appropriate level, it could support both the stock market and the cryptocurrencies positively.

There are currently limited negative risks for Bitcoin, and any pullbacks present buying opportunities. However, for altcoins, it is advisable to monitor those with trust funds, such as Grayscale, which have the potential to yield high returns, particularly in the AI, DeFi, and Layer-1 blockchain sectors.

References

• https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-drops-to-63-k-and-fails-to-rebound-after-fed-hints-at-future-interest-rate-cuts 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-whales-lack-sufficient-profit-dump-markets-ki-young-ju 
• https://www.theblock.co/post/318700/ethereum-foundation-has-sold-over-10-million-worth-of-ether-this-year 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitwise-xrp-etf-filing-sec 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-files-notice-appeal-ripple-lawsuit
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-launches-aave-investment-fund 

Disclaimers

• Cryptocurrencies and digital tokens are highly risky; investors may lose all investment money. Investors should study information carefully and make investments according to their own risk profile.
• Past returns or performance of digital assets do not guarantee future returns or performance. 

Remark: views, information, knowledge, and opinions are considered as content that come from individuals involved. They do not constitute an expression of Bitazza and its employees. Neither the email nor the content presented constitute investment advice.