Week of September 3 - 9, 2024
Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell by 8.6% in August. Historical data since 2017 shows that September has consistently delivered negative returns for Bitcoin, with an average of -4.41%. However, in years with Bitcoin Halving events, such as 2016 and 2020, the last three months of the year have seen positive returns continuously for three months.
Data from Kaiko indicates that the U.S. government holds over 203,000 BTC, worth 12.1 billion USD, while creditors of Mt. Gox are set to receive 46,000 BTC valued at over 2.7 billion USD. However, Glassnode’s report states that Mt. Gox creditors who have received their Bitcoin have not sold it significantly.
Russia will begin testing its national payment card system as infrastructure for exchanges between the ruble and digital currencies starting September 1. This will allow the Moscow Exchange and St. Petersburg Currency Exchange to establish official digital currency trading platforms.
Nasdaq has partnered with CF Benchmarks, a digital asset index provider, to file with the U.S. SEC for the listing and trading of Nasdaq Bitcoin Index Options (XBTX). This security would allow investors to manage and hedge Bitcoin exposure using options derivatives. If approved, it will be the first digital currency to be approved by the US Options Clearing Corporation (OCC).
MakerDAO is undergoing a major rebrand, changing its name to Sky and preparing to launch new tokens SKY and USDS on September 18. The existing DAI and MKR tokens will remain in use, and users can choose between the old and new tokens.
The Telegram network (The Open Network or TON) was unable to create new blocks for more than 6 hours due to unusually high usage stemming from the airdrop of the famous meme coin Dogs (DOGS). Toncoin (TON) has confirmed that no digital assets have been lost.
Daily transaction fees on the Solana chain have dropped to their lowest level since early May 2024, down 65% from the peak, likely due to decreased popularity of meme coins in the current market conditions.
BTC has been unable to reach new highs and lacks positive news to support it, leading to a downward price trend. Watch closely; if the price falls below the previous low of 49,000 USD, the trend might reverse to a bearish one, and it's advisable to cut losses before that happens. Meanwhile, resistance needs to be overcome at the 65,000 USD level.
Support: 1,760,000 THB / 49,000 USD
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH is still facing pressure from selling related to the Spot Ethereum ETF. The price has not been able to reach new highs, leading to a continued downward trend. Be cautious if the price falls below the support level of 2,100 USD, as the trend may turn bearish. To reverse this trend, ETH must break through the resistance level at 3,000 USD.
Support: 72,000 THB / 2,100 USD
Resistance: 104,000 THB / 3,000 USD
VELO delivered a 14.85% return over the past week, with buying pressure emerging after hitting a low of 0.008 USD. Use this level as a cut-loss point if it is breached. The short-term resistance is at 0.018 USD. If VELO surpasses this level, consider a follow-buy strategy as the price may continue to rise.
Support: 0.25 THB / 0.008 USDZENT achieved a 0.08% return over the past week, recovering from a low of 0.01158 USD. The trend shows potential for further upward movement if it can break through the resistance at 0.02240 USD. However, if the price declines, it must not create a new low to allow for a continued recovery.
Bitcoin has been declining since the start of September. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often delivers negative returns this month, with an average return of -4.41%. The negative pressure on Bitcoin this month is largely due to sell-offs by the U.S. government and Mt. Gox creditors, who collectively hold nearly 15 billion USD worth of Bitcoin.
However, at the end of September, there will be a meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Chair of the Federal Reserve has previously signaled that there might be an opportunity to lower interest rates, which could positively impact the cryptocurrency market.
A key highlight is the Non-Farm Payroll report scheduled for September 6, with expectations for 164,000 new jobs, up from 114,000 previously, and an unemployment rate projected to be 4.2%, down from 4.3% last month. If the economic data turns out to be weaker, it might increase market confidence that the FOMC will likely lower interest rates, which could positively affect Bitcoin prices.
Despite intermittent sell-offs of Bitcoin, there will also be buying pressure through the Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, most Mt. Gox creditors have not significantly sold off their Bitcoin after receiving repayments, suggesting that the downside for Bitcoin may not be too severe. The worst-case scenario is projected around 49,000 USD.
Long-term investors can consider accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum if prices correct downwards while waiting for a market turnaround starting in October. Short-term traders should be cautious of volatility and focus on short-term gains.
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