Week of September 24-30, 2024
US presidential candidate Kamala Harris has recently started promoting emerging technologies such as AI and digital assets. She also explicitly mentioned cryptocurrency for the first time since beginning her election campaign. Their proposed economic policy package is expected this week.
Standard Chartered analysts anticipate that Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies may trend upwards soon, following the US Federal Reserve's (FED) first interest rate cut, driven by macroeconomic conditions. They also suggest monitoring capital inflows from the Spot Bitcoin ETF in October.
Analysts from Bernstein predict that after the FED cuts interest rates, the DeFi market will become more attractive, with potential returns even exceeding those from U.S. government bonds. Signs of a resurgence in the DeFi market are already visible, although the cryptocurrency market has not yet returned to its previous highs.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, acknowledged that Ethereum (ETH) still generates lower returns than Bitcoin (BTC), and even Solana (SOL). However, it still maintains a dominant 50% share of stablecoin creation and 60% of total assets in DeFi. He views Ethereum as the Microsoft of blockchain, primarily trusted by large organizations.
German banking giants Commerzbank and DZ Bank have started offering Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading services. They are available for both corporate and cooperative clients across over 700 locations. Both banks together manage assets exceeding $1 trillion.
MicroStrategy has completed a convertible bond offering approximately $1.01 billion, at an interest rate of 0.625%, and maturing in 2028. A portion of those proceeds will be used for purchasing Bitcoin. Recently, from September 13 to 19, MicroStrategy acquired about 7,420 BTC—for around $458.2 million—at an average price of about $61,750.
Arkham Intelligence revealed that Bhutan holds approximately 13,029 BTC, valued at about $758 million, which is more than double the Bitcoin held by El Salvador. This revenue was generated by mining operations through Druk Holdings, the commercial arm of the Royal Government of Bhutan. The Himalayan country currently also holds about $1.5 million worth of Ethereum (ETH), along with smaller amounts of Binance (BNB) and Polygon (POL).
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing gradual buying interest again, showing signs of recovery with a short-term target of $65,000. If the price surpasses this level, it may test the $70,000 target next. However, if the price pulls back, a suitable support level for buying is around the $60,000 mark. Overall, the trend for this week appears to be bullish.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH has recovered and reached a new low, but the trend is improving after breaking through the resistance at $2,460. Its current price can serve as a support level, with the next target at $2,270. The resistance level for this week is $2,750, and if it surpasses this level, there may be increased positive momentum.
Sui (SUI)
Sui (SUI) achieved 46.16% returns over the past week, indicating a reversal into a bullish trend. The strategy is to buy on dips, with the first support level at $1.40. The short-term target should be set at $1.80. However, be cautious of potential sell-offs due to significant price increases.
Aptos (APT)
Aptos (APT) recorded 37.31% gains last week, showing signs of a bullish reversal. The price has crossed over its 100-day moving average, with the first support level at $7. The outlook for further recovery is positive, with the next resistance target at $9.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates by 0.5%, which aligned with market expectations. However, concerns about a potential recession are putting pressure on the stock market, including Bitcoin, which responded only with a mildly positive reaction.
The U.S. Q2 GDP figures will be announced this Thursday, September 26. On the same day, the Federal Reserve Chair will comment on the economic outlook. If the GDP figures and comments both indicate ongoing economic growth, they could positively impact Bitcoin prices too.
Bitcoin still faces short-term selling pressure. However, the original view remains that Q4 will be a better period for the cryptocurrency market. Buying interest from the Spot Bitcoin ETFs continues, as Kamala Harris has begun discussing policies to promote digital assets. While details are still unclear, this should alleviate some market concerns about the implications of a potential Democratic election victory on cryptocurrencies.
In the altcoin sector, AI-related coins are beginning to yield returns above the market average, along with new Layer-1 blockchain projects and certain DeFi tokens. Investors should look for opportunities to accumulate coins that are gaining speculative interest, as well as larger holdings like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
References
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