Week of December 23 - 29, 2025
Bitwise Asset Management expects Bitcoin to break away from the traditional four-year cycle and potentially reach a new all-time high again in 2026. Institutional buying pressure from firms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch is seen as a key driver, alongside a more crypto-friendly policy environment.
It is estimated that if MSCI removes companies classified under Digital Asset Treasury from its indices, there could be $10–15 billion in capital outflows from the crypto market across 39 companies. Strategy alone could see outflows of approximately $2.8 billion, potentially impacting both equity and crypto markets.
CryptoQuant believes the crypto market has entered a bear market, as demand for Bitcoin (BTC) has slowed significantly since early October 2025. Bitcoin may retest the $70,000 support level, and in a worst-case scenario, could fall to around $56,000, which represents its Realized Price.
JPMorgan forecasts that the total market capitalization of stablecoins will not reach $1 trillion by 2028, as stablecoin growth continues to follow the broader crypto market rather than widespread adoption by traditional finance. The stablecoin market is projected to reach $500–600 billion by 2028, up from $300 billion this year, which had grown from $100 billion previously.
Visa has enabled U.S. financial institutions to use USDC on the Solana blockchain for financial transactions such as settlement with Visa. The initiative has launched with Cross River Bank and Lead Bank, with plans to expand adoption more broadly in 2026.
Members of the U.S. House of Representatives have jointly proposed a new draft bill to exempt capital gains tax on stablecoin transactions of up to $200, provided the stablecoins are issued by entities authorized under the GENIUS Act and are pegged to the U.S. dollar. The proposal also allows taxpayers to defer income recognition on staking or mining rewards for up to five years, instead of being taxed immediately upon receipt.
The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed Michael Selig as Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). He was nominated by President Donald Trump and brings direct experience in crypto-related legal matters.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade sideways amid a lack of new positive catalysts. Key support remains at $84,000. If this level fails, the price could drop toward $70,000. However, if support holds, it may present a speculative buying opportunity. A break above $90,500 could open the way to a key resistance level at $94,500.
Ethereum (ETH) has shown little price movement amid declining trading volume toward year-end. Key support to watch is at $2,700, which may serve as an accumulation level. The first resistance that needs to be cleared is $3,500 for the trend to turn bullish again.
Uniswap (UNI) gained 22.17% over the past week. The price surged sharply before entering a consolidation phase. Key support remains at the previous low of $4.80. If this level is broken, a stop loss is advised. The short-term target is $6.51, and a break above this level would signal a bullish reversal.
Chiliz (CHZ) delivered a 19.59% gain over the past week. Price volatility remains high, so caution is advised when trading. Look for entry opportunities near the $0.032 support level. If this level holds, the price could move up to retest the previous high at $0.039, which may serve as a short-term profit-taking zone.
The latest CPI figure of 2.7% came in significantly below market expectations, fueling positive expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may cut interest rates more than once next year, instead of the previously expected single cut. However, Bitcoin initially faced selling pressure before buying interest returned alongside a recovery in U.S. technology stocks, keeping the overall trend in a sideways range.
This week, the market is watching the release of Q3 GDP estimates, which are expected to show 3.8% growth. If the figure comes in below expectations, it could further increase the likelihood of multiple rate cuts by the FOMC.
The impact of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike to a 30-year high, which could lead to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, has so far had a limited effect on the crypto market. Investors remain focused on MSCI’s decision on whether to remove Strategy shares from its indices.
With year-end conditions marked by low trading volumes and a lack of new catalysts, the market is likely to continue moving sideways until the new year. However, if positive momentum returns to U.S. equities and concerns over an AI stock bubble ease, a potential Santa Claus rally could emerge and provide a tailwind for crypto markets. Accumulation of large-cap tokens remains the preferred strategy.
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