Week of September 30 - October 6, 2025

Deutsche Bank reported that Bitcoin’s (BTC) 30-day volatility has dropped to a record low, signaling growing institutional acceptance. The bank projects that by 2030, central banks may hold both gold and Bitcoin on their balance sheets, with emerging markets in particular benefiting from using BTC as a reserve asset to hedge against inflation.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved the direct use of stablecoins as collateral for futures and swaps trading, in partnership with Circle, Coinbase, Ripple, and Crypto.com. The move aims to boost efficiency, reduce counterparty risk, and accelerate the transition toward a digital financial system.

Ethereum (ETH) balances on centralized exchanges have fallen to their lowest levels since 2016, driven by large-scale institutional accumulation since mid-2020. Since mid-July alone, ETH supply on exchanges has dropped more than 20%.

Meanwhile, Spot Ethereum ETFs posted nearly $800 million in outflows last week—their worst week since launch. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also faced heavy withdrawals, with over $900 million exiting in just seven days.

In Kazakhstan, the central bank launched a pilot for Evo (KZTE), a stablecoin pegged to the tenge, in collaboration with Solana and Mastercard. The initiative is part of the central bank’s sandbox program and aims to bridge crypto with traditional finance.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded strongly after a period of correction. If it can break through the resistance level at 108,600 USD, the trend may shift back toward retesting its previous all-time high. However, if it fails to break through, the price is likely to continue moving sideways, with 108,600 USD remaining a key support level to watch.

• Support: 3,450,000 THB / 108,600 USD
• Resistance: 3,800,000 THB / 118,000 USD

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded from the recent low at 3,800 USD, using that level as support. If it breaks below, the downtrend may continue. In the short term, the price is set to test resistance at 4,700 USD, and if it breaks through, ETH could move back up to form a new all-time high. Look for entry opportunities when the price pulls back.

• Support: 125,000 THB / 3,800 USD
• Resistance: 150,000 THB / 4,700 USD
  
  

Synthetix (SNX)

Synthetix (SNX) delivered a 69.49% return over the past week, breaking through a key resistance level at 0.960 USD and signaling a major trend reversal to the upside. This level now serves as a critical support. Traders may look for entry opportunities as long as the price holds above this support, with a short-term resistance target at 1.280 USD.

• Support: 32 THB / 0.960 USD
• Resistance: 40 THB / 1.280 USD

Stargate Finance (STG)

Stargate Finance (STG) gained 18.93% over the past week, with its price showing signs of a bullish reversal. A “buy on dip” strategy is suggested around the 0.1812 USD zone. However, if the price breaks below this level, a stop-loss is recommended, while profit-taking could be considered near the resistance at 0.2100 USD.

• Support: 5.80 THB / 0.1812 USD
• Resistance: 6.82 THB / 0.2100 USD 

Investment Trends

The Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) gave a speech on the economic outlook, expressing satisfaction with the current state of economic management and inflation. The market interpreted this as a signal that there may no longer be two more rate cuts this year. At the same time, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data led the crypto market to undergo a correction before rebounding on the back of PCE figures, which rose only modestly.

Looking ahead, Friday, October 3, 2025, brings the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. Markets expect 51,000 new jobs, up from 22,000 last month. A lower-than-expected print could be bullish, as it may pressure the Fed toward a cut.

September closed with BTC up about 1%, outperforming its historical average, which typically sees losses. October has historically delivered positive returns, often continuing into November.

The U.S. government is expected to avoid a shutdown, with limited impact on crypto. 

Investment strategy: Continue gradual accumulation of BTC, ETH, and strong altcoins in anticipation of a Q4 recovery. Key catalysts to watch include the potential approval of altcoin ETFs and the establishment of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

References

• https://www.theblock.co/post/371686/bitcoin-gold-volatility-decline-deutsche-bank
• https://www.theblock.co/post/372041/cftc-launches-tokenized-initiative-allowing-derivatives-traders-to-post-stablecoins-as-collateral
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-balance-exchanges-hits-9-year-low-what-it-means
• https://www.theblock.co/post/372650/spot-ethereum-etfs-see-largest-outflow-week-since-inception-as-eth-reclaims-4000 
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/kazakhstan-solana-mastercard-stablecoin-kzte 

Disclaimers

• Cryptocurrencies and digital tokens are highly risky; investors may lose all investment money. It is important to study information carefully and invest based on your own risk profile.
• Past returns or performance of digital assets do not guarantee future returns or performance. 

Remark: The views, information, knowledge, and opinions expressed herein are those of the individuals involved and do not represent the views of Bitazza or its employees. Neither this email nor the content presented constitutes investment advice.

Learn more on Bitazza Thailand Blog

• Bitwise Projects Bitcoin Could Reach 1.3 Million USD by 2035
• Bernstein Sees Crypto Bull Market Extending Into 2027