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On November 9, 2024, Plug - Tanawat Sutuntivorakoon, CEO of Bitazza Thailand, participated in a discussion at Thailand Blockchain Week 2024 under the topic "Will the Real Bull Market Arrive When the FED Stops Raising Interest Rates?" We have summarized the key points that may interest our Bitazzans.
The U.S. Economy Under Donald Trump
The session began with a reflection on the U.S. economy after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election in 2024. From a macroeconomic perspective, there are several factors that could drive cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, due to many of Trump’s policies. For example, bringing Bitcoin into a Strategic Reserve could lead to increased demand for Bitcoin, which is already limited in supply. This would drive the price further, on top of existing factors such as Bitcoin Halving and reduced interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED).
Additionally, Trump’s policy on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) trends pushed for alternative energy, including subsidies for local alternative energy companies. This reduced energy costs and encouraged more miners to move into the U.S., thereby increasing Bitcoin mining.
Will a Recession Happen?
As for the likelihood of a recession, it’s important to consider the U.S. debt ceiling, which, while not high compared to GDP, is increasing steadily and is something to watch closely.
The potential recession is also linked to Trump’s tax policies, particularly the tariff wall. Many products, especially raw materials, still need to be imported from Asia, especially China. While the situation remains uncertain, it’s a risk to keep an eye on.
Will the Bull Market Be Like the COVID-19 Era?
When asked whether the bull market in 2024-2025 would resemble the one during the COVID-19 period, Plug commented that geopolitical factors and wars must also be considered, in addition to the FED’s interest rate cuts.
Looking at Bitcoin (BTC) as "Digital Gold," it was designed to handle uncertainty and inflation. If future conditions become more volatile and uncertain, demand for Bitcoin could increase due to its blockchain transparency, making it a Safe Haven, though with some volatility.
Another key point is the increasing acceptance of digital asset regulations. For example, Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF discussions with government officials in various countries show a growing openness, encouraging further regulatory alignment with market needs.
What’s likely to happen next is that as regulations open up, institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals, who previously lacked confidence, may start investing. For instance, in Europe with MiCa (Markets in Crypto-Assets), the market will grow, pushing traditional asset investors to consider Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies more.
We also need to watch whether Trump’s policies in Q1 of 2025 can be implemented effectively and whether interest rates will be reduced faster or slower than expected.
Advice for New Investors
Plug concluded with advice for new traders, urging them to diversify their portfolios. As the saying goes, “Don’t put all your fruit in one basket.” Even if you have confidence in certain assets, diversification is key, as it helps mitigate the impact of any unexpected events.
*This content is provided by Bitazza Co., Ltd.
**The person in this picture is the person of Bitazza Co., Ltd.
***Cryptocurrencies and digital tokens involve high risks; investors may lose all investment money and should study information carefully and make investments according to their own risk profile.